SCB EIC keeps its 2026 Thai GDP forecast at 2.2% and 2027 at 2.1%, describing a K-shaped recovery where AI-linked electronics exports and foreign investment benefit large firms more than SMEs. SMEs face slower income recovery, thinner margins, tighter credit access and strong foreign competition. Private consumption is expected to slow in the second half of the year. Remaining funds from the 400 billion baht borrowing decree (the first 200 billion) should support activity and living costs this year, with the second 200 billion, tied to energy transition projects, flowing mainly in 2027. Risks flagged include Middle East conflict, US trade barriers and a possible Super El Niño, which could raise costs and squeeze SMEs further. Plan cash flow conservatively and check whether you can link into new supply chains or qualify for the energy-transition funding.