The IMF's October 2026 outlook puts Thai GDP growth at 2.1% for 2026 (up from 1.9% in July) and 2.1% for 2027 (down from 2.2%). Inflation is forecast to rise to 2.1% in 2026 from -0.1% a year earlier, then ease to 1.7% in 2027. Thailand is near the bottom of ASEAN growth, ahead only of Myanmar and Brunei, while Vietnam is expected at 7.5%. For a Thai SME, plan on modest domestic demand and slightly rising costs, not a strong recovery. Global energy prices and the AI-driven investment boom are the two forces the IMF flags as pushing the outlook.