Thailand's trade deficit reached $37.8 billion from January to August 2026, up from $5.31 billion for all of 2025. Imports rose 36.1% against exports up 18.9%, with China the largest source of the gap. Exports still grew 24.3% in August, and TPSO sees 2026 export growth of at least 8%, possibly 15% in its November update, but a contraction is expected in 2027. Officials warn that high oil prices and freight costs could squeeze shipments next year, and that tariff uncertainty has pushed firms to stockpile imports, which may cut orders later. For SMEs, plan input costs and freight with a possible order slowdown in 2027 in mind, and avoid over-stocking now.