Brent fell to about US$102.25 and West Texas to about US$91.11 per barrel on 2 Oct 2026, after Saudi loadings from its east coast hit 6 million barrels a day, the highest since the conflict began. Saudi exports via the Yanbu Red Sea route are expected to rise to 2.9m b/d in Oct and 3.6m b/d in Nov, lowering Hormuz risk. Chinese demand is soft, and Shandong refinery runs may fall to about 45% in Q4. Tensions with Iran and Russian energy infrastructure attacks remain risks. For fuel and transport costs, expect some easing but not a firm trend yet; avoid locking in long fuel-cost assumptions.