The Commerce Ministry's trade policy office reports September 2026 consumer prices up 2.82% year on year, driven by domestic fuel prices that stay high, plus processed food and fresh food. It now expects 2026 inflation at 1.8-2.2% (previously 1.5-2.5%), with energy contributing over 60% of the rise. Flooding is estimated to add only about 0.1%, mainly through leafy vegetables. For the Q4 outlook, watch fuel costs, fresh-vegetable prices and demand ahead of the vegetarian festival. Plan for input costs, especially energy and transport, to stay elevated through the rest of the year.