The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75-4% in September 2026, the first hike in three years, to fight persistent inflation. Oil has climbed above $100 a barrel on Middle East tensions, including Hormuz shipping disruption. Markets expect possibly two more hikes this year, with one in December likely. For a Thai SME: expect pressure on fuel and imported input costs, and watch for a stronger US dollar and possible higher borrowing costs. Review cash flow, fuel and import-cost assumptions, and avoid locking in new variable-rate debt without a plan.