Renewed US-Iran fighting has cut roughly 20% of crude and refined fuel supply from the market, and analysts warn Brent could top US$100/barrel from about US$70 before the war. Thailand is a net oil importer, so analysts see higher production, transport and living costs alongside weaker demand. Headline inflation for 2026 may reach 2.4-3.3%. Thai finance minister data shows a Q2 current-account deficit of US$14bn. For SMEs: review energy and freight costs in pricing, avoid locking in long fixed-price supply contracts without escalation clauses, and plan for softer domestic sales this year.