Factory closures outnumbered new registrations in Q1 2026 for the first time in 10 quarters, and K-Research expects unemployment and closures to worsen through the rest of the year. Section 33 layoffs hit 531,779 by end-2025, up 20% year on year. Cheap Chinese steel and e-commerce imports are squeezing domestic makers; 32 steel firms shut in H1. FTI has proposed a "Made in Thailand" procurement push (200 billion baht with 40% local content), which is not yet policy. For SMEs in supply chains, plan for weaker orders, tighter household spending, and possible customer failures; review receivables and cash buffers now.