Associate Professor Samsai Srisan (Thammasat) argues the government's plan to cut recurrent spending from 70% to 30% of the budget via 30,000 early retirements is not realistic. He warns of outsourcing replacing retirees, as happened after the 2002 reform, so spending may not fall. For a Thai SME, this is background on public spending and policy uncertainty. No immediate action is needed, though government contract and payment timing could be affected by a reform process.