The IMF's October 2026 Regional Economic Outlook puts Thailand's GDP growth at 2.1% for both 2026 and 2027, up 0.6 points from April but still the lowest of the ASEAN-5 (average 4.4%). The report says Thai firms gain from AI only indirectly, through parts supply to neighbouring data-centre countries. Key risks flagged: a prolonged Middle East energy crisis, China's slowdown, trade tensions, sticky inflation and a severe El Niño that could push up food prices. For a small business, plan on slow domestic demand, keep energy and food costs under watch, and be cautious about expansion assumptions for the next two years.