A TISCO research column says the Strait of Hormuz disruption is not resolving. Oil supply lost early in the conflict has partly recovered, but is still about 5 million barrels a day short. Several institutions have raised year-end oil price forecasts from about USD 75 to USD 90-95 a barrel. TISCO sees fair value of USD 100-110 short term and says the risk skews upward over 1-2 years. For a Thai SME, this points to higher diesel, fuel and freight costs, so review fuel-heavy budgets and pricing with suppliers. The column is investment research, so treat its forecasts as a view, not a fact.