The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook forecasts world growth of 3.1% in 2026, slowing from 3.5% in 2025, with 95% of growth coming from just 32 countries. Energy importers that are not part of the AI supply chain face the toughest conditions: higher energy import bills, pressure on the currency and falling real incomes. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.1% to 4.7% in 2026, driven mainly by oil prices. For a Thai SME, this suggests planning for higher energy and import costs and tighter household spending through 2026, rather than changing anything immediately.