Thai exports rose 24.3% YoY in August 2026 (19.5% excluding oil, gold and defence goods), but imports rose 25.1%, so the trade deficit has lasted 11 months. The Commerce Ministry expects 2026 export growth of 5-11% (midpoint 8%), with a possible rise to 15% after a Q3 revision. It expects exports to contract in 2027 because of the high base, front-loading that may fade, and the Middle East conflict. For an SME, the risks are weaker overseas orders after this year and freight and energy costs. Watch the palm oil management measures, which could weigh on agricultural exports. Review export pipelines and cash flow for the next year now.