The Thai Chamber of Commerce says the 12.5% US tariff on Thai goods covers only the forced-labour Section 301 finding. The excess-capacity probe is still open, so the final tariff burden is not settled. The chamber wants the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) concluded with a combined rate around 18-20%, no higher than Thailand's ASEAN rivals. For exporters to the US, plan pricing and orders as if the rate could move again. Thai exports to the US were up 23% in 2025 and 38% in the first eight months of 2026.