The Bank of Thailand says July's economic recovery was driven by global AI-linked electronics exports (up 22.3% y/y) and foreign tourist arrivals (up 7.6%). Headline inflation fell to 1.95% from 2.42% on lower energy prices, while core inflation rose to 1.34% as food makers passed on costs. The baht weakened in July then firmed on average in August, with data to 25 August. Watch five risks: the AI cycle, trade wars, government stimulus, tourism recovery and El Niño, which should become clearer in Q4 2026 into Q1 2027. Household consumption is still uneven, so plan cautiously on demand. The BOT also says Japanification risk exists but the causes differ from Japan's.