InnovestX estimates 2026 flood damage at about 21,000 million baht, with the worst hit in Q3 (about 19,100 million baht) as travel, spending and activity stop in flooded areas. It expects activity to recover 1-2 weeks after the water recedes, and the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus Phase 2" stimulus (up to 42,690.65 million baht, with about 15,600 million baht of expected activity) to offset much of the loss. Net impact is about 5,300 million baht; 2026 GDP forecast stays at 2.0%. October foreign arrivals may fall by about 160,000, but the 33 million full-year target is unchanged. For a flood-area business, plan for a weak Q3 cash flow and prepare to claim stimulus support in Q4.