Kasikorn Research expects Thai car production to fall 1.8% in 2026, while imports keep rising: China supplies 69% of car imports in the first seven months, and BEVs make up 72% of import value. The National EV Policy Board is weighing excise-tax incentives to push makers toward local parts. Expected effects are fewer imports, higher car prices and more local production, with a 2027 output rebound if rules are enforced. For auto-parts and supplier SMEs, the local-content rules matter most; check whether your products could qualify and watch for the final tax terms.