The Bank of Thailand's southern office says the region slowed in Q2 2026: higher energy costs and fewer flights cut tourism income (Phuket tourism income down 5.7%), and private consumption fell. Business loans fell 5.1% as of May 2026, though the trend is improving. Q3 is expected to pick up on government spending stimulus and farm income, but watch Middle East conflict, US trade policy, the pass-through of costs into prices, and hot, dry weather. For small operators: plan for weaker tourist-linked demand this quarter, and keep energy and transport costs under review.