Benchmark crude rose above US$100 a barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, despite US talk of progress with Iran. Tisco ESU projects oil around $90 a barrel, above the $70-80 market consensus. Analysts warn of higher diesel subsidies, inflation, rising government bond yields and pressure on SME borrowing costs, plus possible baht weakness if capital flows out. GDP growth is seen around 2%. For SMEs: plan for higher fuel and transport costs, review variable-rate loans and cash buffers, and avoid assuming cheap energy or credit this quarter.