KKP Research raised its 2026 Thai GDP forecast to 2.5% (from 2.1%), but still ranks lowest in ASEAN alongside the Philippines. Exports are growing strongly, yet the current account is in deficit and much of the AI-driven gain flows to foreign data-centre owners. Households face debt and tighter credit, and KKP flags SME closures in export supply chains. For a Thai SME, plan for slow domestic demand this year and watch credit access and supplier stress rather than expecting a broad recovery.