UTCC forecasts the household debt-to-GDP ratio falling from 85.2% in Q2 to about 84% by Q4 2026, even though total household debt still rises from 16.3 to 16.5 trillion baht. The drop reflects tighter lending, not stronger repayment: 8.6% of recent consumer loan applicants were rejected, mainly for low income, high debt-service ratios or bad credit-bureau records. For a business owner, expect tougher personal and consumer loan approvals for staff and customers, so plan cash flow with less reliance on borrowed customer spending.