StanChart lifted its 2026 Thai GDP forecast to 1.6% from 1.4%, citing short-term relief measures, with possible upside to about 2% if Q2 GDP (due in about two weeks) is solid and the 2027 budget passes on time. It expects policy rates held at 1.00% this year and next, and inflation of 1.9% this year. Q3 should improve, but Q4 may lose government support and face a high base from last year's co-payment scheme. Plan cautiously for Q4: watch the budget deadline (1 Oct), any extension of relief measures, Chinese tourist arrivals, and the baht, which the bank does not see as a concern. External risks flagged: war, US rate moves, and El Niño pushing food and energy prices up.