Krungthai COMPASS estimates a Super El Niño in 2026 could cost Thai agriculture up to 61,860 million baht through drought and erratic rain. KKP Research expects rice output to fall about 5.4 million tonnes, cane about 12 million tonnes and cassava about 3.1 million tonnes. Drought may also worsen PM2.5 haze early next year. For a business, watch raw-material prices and supply from farm inputs, and plan water and cash flow for a dry period.