The Asian Development Bank raised its 2026 Thai GDP forecast to 2.0% (from 1.8%) on tech exports and private investment, but cut 2027 to 1.9% (from 2.0%) as the tech cycle normalises and new US tariffs apply for a full year. Inflation is forecast at 2.5% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, helped by government electricity and fuel subsidies and price controls, though ADB warns it could run higher if geopolitical tensions, cost pass-through or El Niño push up food prices. For a small business, plan for slower export-linked demand next year, keep energy and transport cost buffers in place, and do not assume subsidies will last.