Archive
September 25, 2026
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The Thai Meteorological Department forecasts heavy rain in most regions on 26 Sep, with thunderstorms covering 70-80% of the Central, Eastern and Bangkok areas. Flash floods, landslides and waterlogging are possible in low-lying and flood-prone spots. Plan for delayed deliveries and transport, and move stock or equipment off low floors. Small boats in the upper Gulf of Thailand should not leave shore until 27 Sep. Waves in the Gulf reach 2-3 m, and over 3 m where storms occur.
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Washington and Beijing agreed to extend their trade truce by two months, to 10 January 2027, per US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Further talks are planned at APEC in Shenzhen (18-19 November) and G20 in Miami (14-15 December). The US is also running a Section 301 probe into Chinese overcapacity, and a decision may follow the summit; the article says this would also affect Thailand and other trade partners. For Thai SMEs that export or import, keep tariff scenarios in your pricing and supplier planning, but no action is needed yet. AI rules remain under discussion with no concrete outcome.
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The Constitutional Court reads its ruling on Monday (2pm) on barcodes and QR codes on the 8 Feb election ballots. Outcomes range from no change to a re-run of the party-list vote or a new general election. Political risk may affect baht sentiment and government timing, so keep a short-term cash buffer and avoid major decisions that depend on political stability until the result is known. Day-to-day business is unlikely to change.
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Thailand's trade deficit reached $37.8 billion from January to August 2026, up from $5.31 billion for all of 2025. Imports rose 36.1% against exports up 18.9%, with China the largest source of the gap. Exports still grew 24.3% in August, and TPSO sees 2026 export growth of at least 8%, possibly 15% in its November update, but a contraction is expected in 2027. Officials warn that high oil prices and freight costs could squeeze shipments next year, and that tariff uncertainty has pushed firms to stockpile imports, which may cut orders later. For SMEs, plan input costs and freight with a possible order slowdown in 2027 in mind, and avoid over-stocking now.
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The Excise Department is considering an administrative order to recover EV3 subsidies from importers that did not produce enough EVs domestically to offset their imported CBU vehicles. Recovery is per missing vehicle, plus 7.5% a year simple interest. Buyers do not have to repay anything; the subsidy goes to manufacturers or importers. Relevant if your business deals in EVs, EV parts, or any subsidy-linked production commitment: check your compliance ratio (1:1 or 1:1.5 depending on the deadline) and expect a signed compliance certificate for future subsidies.
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Heavy rain above 150 mm in some east Bangkok areas has filled canals around Khlong Prawet and Bueng Nong Bon, so drainage will be slow while rain continues. BMA says the bueng is being used as a retention basin and is adding mobile pumps. Riverside shop and home owners should watch water levels, move stock to higher ground, and plan travel around the evening rain. New drainage tunnels are still at the contractor-hiring stage, so no relief is coming soon.
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Bangkok recorded up to 133 mm of rain in 24 hours on 25 September, with the flood-risk focus on the east (Khlong Saen Saep, Prawet Burirom canal). BMA has 200+ risk spots still to fix and is running pumps overnight. Rain is forecast to ease on 27 September. For shops and warehouses in eastern Bangkok, expect flooded sois and access roads for a few days: plan deliveries, move stock off ground floors, and check the weather before travelling.
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Hua Hin municipality has signed a demolition contractor to clear 26 structures encroaching on the public beach between the fishing pier and the Goddess of the Sea shrine, many of them restaurants and tourist accommodation on wooden piers. The mayor says 15 buildings are to be demolished within 120 days from Friday, with the municipality funding those and the Marine Department covering 11 more. Owners still defying a 2014 Supreme Administrative Court ruling face removal, and some have applied to the Hua Hin Provincial Court for protection. If your business sits on or near Hua Hin's beach, check your land and structure status and get legal advice now.
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Under the new Ride Sharing rules (รย.17 and รย.18), drivers on ride-hailing apps need a public driving licence (ใบขับขี่สาธารณะ) by the 30 Sep 2026 deadline. Bolt says drivers who still lack one after that date will get no jobs on its platform, and new drivers must hold one before signing up. Bolt pays a 500 baht bonus to drivers who upload the licence and offers lower commission (6% for motorcycles, 5% for cars, versus 19% and 22% normally). If you run a fleet or hire drivers for a ride-hailing or delivery business, check every driver's status now, since weekly licence sessions are available. Applications have roughly tripled since the platforms signed on in June.
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Central Pattana is offering free car parking at Central Ayutthaya, Korat, Chonburi and Si Racha for residents in flood-risk areas. Chonburi runs 25-27 September 2026; overnight parking at Korat and Chonburi needs registration with a copy of the ID card and vehicle registration book. The mall does not accept liability for damage or theft. For a Thai SME in these provinces, this is a practical place to move vehicles or company vans out of flood water, and a reason to tell staff and customers about it.
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The Social Security Board election is on Sunday 27 September 2026. Candidate 45 was disqualified, so voters can write 38 in its place; any order is accepted as long as all 7 remaining numbers are marked without repeats. Employers face a more complex process than insured workers: they need to prepare identity documents as specified by the rules, while insured workers only need their national ID card. The source is a candidate interview, so the claims about fund solvency and reform are one side's view. Check the official election rules before voting.
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Deputy PM Bhradon says the government has 1.2 billion baht in contingency funds to lend to students at the start of fiscal 2027, pending a cabinet decision on 29 Sep. The Student Loan Fund (กยศ.) is also reviewing borrowing conditions, and 2.6 million borrowers are behind on repayments. Changes to interest or penalty rates would need a law amendment, which is still under consideration. For a Thai SME owner, the direct impact is limited to staff or families who rely on student loans, and to any future changes in repayment rules that could affect household cash flow.
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The State Railway of Thailand and CP's Asia Era One will sign a new MOU on 28 September to keep operating the Airport Rail Link for 4 months, from 1 October 2569 (2026) to 31 January 2570 (2027), with no wage issue. Fares minus costs go to the operator. From 1 February 2570 the state subsidiary RFT Electric Train Co. takes over operations and maintenance. The operator must post a 533 million baht guarantee. For a small business, this is a transport-service change with no direct cost or action needed, unless you supply or service the line or its staff.
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Cabinet approved (15 Sep) a household flood policy covering over 30 million households, budget 15.5 billion baht. From 1 Oct 2026 insurers pay: 10,000 baht within 7 days of a province declaring a flood zone, then loss-based payouts up to 90,000 baht per household after water recedes. Government budget covers floods until 30 Sep 2026. For a Thai SME owner: check whether your home or shophouse is covered, keep photos and records of damage, and note that agricultural land falls under the Agriculture Ministry's separate scheme. Flood-season claims after 1 Oct go to insurers, not government.
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Thai exports rose 24.3% YoY in August 2026 (19.5% excluding oil, gold and defence goods), but imports rose 25.1%, so the trade deficit has lasted 11 months. The Commerce Ministry expects 2026 export growth of 5-11% (midpoint 8%), with a possible rise to 15% after a Q3 revision. It expects exports to contract in 2027 because of the high base, front-loading that may fade, and the Middle East conflict. For an SME, the risks are weaker overseas orders after this year and freight and energy costs. Watch the palm oil management measures, which could weigh on agricultural exports. Review export pipelines and cash flow for the next year now.
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Flooding in Khlong Luang, Pathum Thani has led Wat Phra Dhammakaya to open its Parking Building 1 for up to 1,000 cars from 25 to 28 September, or until conditions change. Cars must be drivable, park only in the designated building, and owners should remove cash, documents and valuables; the temple accepts no liability for loss or damage. Overnight stays in cars and pets are not allowed. Relevant mainly if your business operates in Khlong Luang or nearby areas and needs temporary vehicle storage during floods.
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TISCO ESU says governments raising debt for defence and Big Tech borrowing for data centres, chips and power are pushing up global bond yields by roughly 0.60-0.90%. It expects the US Fed to raise rates another 0.25% in December, to about 4.25%, and to hold there into 2027. For a Thai SME, plan on borrowing costs staying high rather than falling soon: avoid assuming cheaper refinancing, and check the fixed versus floating rate on existing loans.
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The EV Board has agreed in principle to a three-tier excise structure. Locally produced EVs would pay 1% to 6% depending on type, but must use Thai-made batteries or motors by 2027 and 30% local parts or 40% Thai local content by 2028. Fully imported Chinese EVs would pay the highest rate. The structure is expected to take effect in early 2027, and imported Chinese EVs under FTA still enter at 0% import duty. For auto-parts suppliers, the push for higher local content is the key point to plan around. Dealers and car-related businesses should expect price gaps between Chinese imports and locally made models to narrow, though the article says imports remain only slightly more expensive after tax.
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AAV's chairman says Thai AirAsy has enough cash flow and will keep flying through Q4 and Q1, despite the Malaysian AirAsy's liquidity problems. Jet fuel rose about 124% to US$183 per barrel in Q2, and fuel is now 50-55% of costs versus a normal 35-40%. The airline raised fares by over 20%, and advance bookings for Q4 are about 86%. It has no fuel hedge at present. For SMEs, this signals that airfares and air freight costs stay high, so plan travel budgets and cargo pricing with that in mind. Customers booking trips are not at risk for now.
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KKPS analyst Teerapol Udomvej says Thai health spending grew 7.6% a year over 2000-2023, against 5.8% for nominal GDP. The government funds about 78% of it. Welfare's share of the budget rose from 20% (2016) to 30% (2026). Analysts expect fiscal room to tighten from about 2030, which could mean slower spending in other areas or new revenue measures. Social security benefit payouts grew about 9% a year against roughly 3% contribution income (2014-2024). No direct action is needed now; watch for changes to public health schemes, social security contributions and tax policy.