Krungsri Research expects the Monetary Policy Committee to keep the policy rate at 1.00% at its 26 Aug meeting. Bank credit to SMEs fell 4.6% in Q2 (the fourth straight year of decline), while large-business lending grew 6.6%, so SME borrowing stays tight. NPLs eased slightly to 2.82% of total loans. Middle East tension remains high after US-Iran talks ended on 17 Aug without a deal, which raises oil price risk. For an SME owner: plan on no rate cut relief, prepare for tighter bank lending, and watch fuel and raw material costs.