The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce expects Thai exports to grow 17.8% in 2026 to US$400.8bn, then slow to 7.4% in 2027 (US$430.5bn), with a scenario range of 0.8-11.1%. Growth is concentrated in the US (24.3% of exports) and electronics. Risks: US tariffs (ART, Section 301), AI demand, and the Strait of Hormuz. For a Thai SME, the practical read is to avoid over-reliance on US buyers or electronics supply chains, and to plan 2027 sales conservatively, with the low case near flat growth.