The IMF forecasts global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, and names Thailand among countries whose growth was upgraded because they supply AI hardware. Oil has stayed above $100 a barrel due to the Middle East war, and the IMF says its cushioning effect is fading. For a small business, this is background for planning: demand from export-linked supply chains may hold up, but fuel and energy costs remain a risk, and Gulf markets face sharp contractions (Saudi Arabia -3.3% in 2026). Review fuel and input cost assumptions for the next two quarters.