The Asian Development Bank's September 2026 outlook keeps a cautious view on Thailand. El Niño is expected to peak around November 2026, with the strongest impact on agriculture and hydropower likely in mid-2027, while the effect this year is limited. Energy and food prices are already pressuring household and business costs. For a Thai SME, plan for weaker farm-linked demand and higher input costs in 2027, and consider stocking up on key inputs or locking in supplier prices early. Heavy rain and drainage problems in Bangkok and the central region are also a near-term operational risk.