Thailand's headline CPI rose 2.53% year on year in August 2026, the fifth straight monthly increase, driven by fuel, ready-cooked food, eggs, chicken and fresh produce. The Commerce Ministry's full-year forecast is 1.81%, but it expects fuel prices to rise another 24.48% from September to December and forecasts ready-food prices up 3.0%. It also puts an 81% chance on a strong El Niño from October to December 2026, which could push up fresh food and meat prices into early 2027. The "Thai Chuay Thai Plus" handout ends in September. For a small business, plan for higher fuel, delivery and ingredient costs in the coming months, and check whether your menu or product prices need adjusting.