The Thai Retailers Association expects retail to grow about 3% in 2026, and 3.0–3.5% in 2027 (around 4.51–4.53 trillion baht). Growth is K-shaped: large export-linked firms are doing well while SMEs struggle with high costs, tight liquidity, bad debt and cheap imports. Average spend per receipt is falling as shoppers cut back to essentials, and durable goods and building materials are hit hardest. Retailers expect Q4 to be a peak season, but sales are seen flat year on year for Q3–Q4. The association is asking the government to revive the Easy E-receipt spending scheme. Nothing is decided yet, so for now, plan for flat sales, tighter cash flow and price competition rather than a demand rebound.