The US Fed raised rates on 16 September, its first hike in over three years, and signalled further hikes this year. The columnist now expects about three hikes, peaking near 4.4%, and sees the baht weakening to around 33.8 per dollar by year-end before easing next year. For Thai SMEs this means higher import costs and dollar-linked debt risk, so review USD pricing, hedge any dollar payments or loans, and watch the oil price, which the columnist identifies as the key driver.