The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce says September–October 2026 will decide whether the recovery continues. Watch three things: Middle East tensions and oil (Brent near $95; domestic diesel 38.39 baht/litre at end-August), the outcome of the US reciprocal trade (ART) talks, and domestic politics. Consumer confidence rose to 53.2 in August, a six-month high, and exports grew 21.64% in July. Thai Chamber GDP forecast is about 2.3% central, with 2.5% possible. The UTCC will publish its official forecast on 10 September 2026. For planning, keep cost buffers for fuel and energy, and avoid committing to large expansion until the oil and ART picture is clearer.