Standard Chartered says the baht's recent rise comes from global factors: a stronger yen, a weaker dollar, gold rising from $4,000 to $4,300 an ounce, and expected US rate cuts. Local factors do not support the baht much: Q2 GDP may come in below 2%, there are political issues, Thailand imports heavily, and tourism is uncertain. The bank's end-2026 forecast is 32.5 baht per dollar, which is weaker than the start-of-year 31.5. For an SME, this means the baht may look firm this week but is not expected to hold its gains. Keep FX-sensitive import costs and export pricing under review, and do not assume the stronger baht will last.