Analysts say Hormuz shipping is down sharply, but markets have adjusted through rerouted tankers, Egyptian ports, and extra non-OPEC supply, so Brent may hold around $90 on average. Morgan Stanley sees Brent averaging about $100 in Q4. Goldman estimates each 10% oil rise lifts US CPI by about 0.28 points. The main risk is oil staying near $100 or above for about three months, which could lead the Fed to hold or raise rates. For a Thai SME, this is a background signal on fuel costs and the baht, not an immediate action point. Watch fuel prices and any borrowing plans tied to US rates.