The Department of Foreign Trade estimates that if the US applies its Excess Capacity Section 301 list like the Forced Labor one, about 28% of Thai exports would lose competitiveness; the other 72% are already under similar tariffs or exempt (2,120 items). Agriculture, food, pet food, shrimp and processed seafood are being prioritised for exemption requests, with private-sector input. The list of items is not yet fixed and depends on the Excess Capacity ruling (16 countries). Thai officials expect the overall US rate could sit near 19-20%, but nothing is final. For exporters in these sectors: start documenting your products, costs and US supply-chain role now, and hold off on pricing or contract commitments until the technical talks and US ruling are known.