IMF's 2026 outlook keeps global growth at 3.1%, unchanged from April and October, but it warns that war-driven supply disruptions and El Niño could keep food and energy prices high. It also says central banks face a dilemma: inflation is slow to fall, so interest rate cuts are harder. For a Thai SME, plan for steady input costs and avoid assuming cheap borrowing soon. The report also flags currency volatility as a risk, with intervention only temporary.