KResearch keeps its 2026 Thai GDP growth forecast at 2.0%, expecting the second half to slow from the first as exports fade and household spending stays fragile, even with the "Thai Help Thai Plus" measures supporting Q3 consumption. Brent crude has moved back above US$100 a barrel after US-Iran tensions flared again in September. Inflation may accelerate in Q4 due to the Middle East conflict, El Niño and US trade measures. For a small business: plan for soft domestic demand in late 2026, keep energy and input costs under review, and expect pressure on prices in Q4.