Finance Minister Ekniti warned on 21 Sep that cutting the excise tax on oil could trigger a fiscal crisis while crude is above $100/barrel. The oil fund stood at -87,072 million baht as of 13 Sep, and government borrowing room for FY2569 (ending this month) is only about 10,000 million baht. The tax is still under consideration (tool 3, after the fund and refinery-price cuts). If it is cut, the government says it will target biofuels (B20 palm, E20 cane/cassava ethanol) rather than general fuel. For a Thai SME, fuel prices and transport costs stay exposed to a possible cut, so keep fuel-cost budgets on the current price and watch for a cabinet decision.