SCB EIC estimates the 16 Sep–7 Oct 2026 floods cut Thai GDP by only about 0.05–0.1 pp in the base case, rising to 0.1–0.25 pp if rains or upstream water worsen. Around 1.1 million households are still affected, concentrated in Bangkok, Samut Prakan, Pathum Thani, Chachoengsao, Chonburi and Ayutthaya. Demand is likely to fall for retail, restaurants, tourism and property, and logistics may slow. Plan for thinner cash flow, repair costs, and possible pent-up demand for replacement goods and flood-protection products.