A Rangsit University economist estimates Thai exports to the US could face a combined 31.5% tariff: the 19% ART reciprocal rate plus a 12.5% Section 301 forced-labour duty, which Thailand falls under because it has not yet enacted a forced-labour import ban. This is an estimate, not confirmed, and many products are excluded or may face 0%. Scenarios range from 19% to 44%. Exporters to the US should price in the possibility of higher duties and watch the ART signing and any forced-labour import law. He urges negotiators to cap total additional duties at 19%.