US 10-year Treasury yields have passed 5% without the sell-off seen in October 2023. The author says calm holds only if yields rise because of rates or profits, not because foreign buyers leave or liquidity tightens. He sketches three scenarios: high-for-longer (50%), a soft landing with a weaker dollar (25%), and a Fed pause that fails to pull yields down (25%), where the dollar weakens, foreign money exits and long-term funding gets more expensive. For a Thai SME this is background. Watch the baht, dollar-linked import costs and loan rates over the coming quarters, and avoid locking in new long-term fixed debt on the assumption yields will fall soon.