Thai headline inflation was 1.95% YoY in July 2026, down from 2.42% in June, but up for a fourth straight month. The Commerce Ministry expects August to stay positive, driven by domestic fuel prices that remain above last year because of the Middle East conflict, higher bus fares, and rising prepared-food and cooking-ingredient prices. Electricity costs are slightly lower than a year ago, and fruit prices are falling. The ministry cut its 2026 full-year forecast to 1.5%-2.5% (midpoint 2.00%). For a small business, expect input and transport costs to stay elevated: review supplier price increases and any menu or product price adjustments this quarter, while stagflation risk is judged to be easing as consumer spending and confidence recover.