NESDC chairman Supavud Saicheua warns growth in the second half of the year depends on US trade talks, since exports to the US are about 25% of Thai exports (12-14% of GDP). A sharp export slowdown could push the government toward more stimulus and borrowing, raising the risk of a credit-rating downgrade next year. Higher energy costs and inflation also leave the Bank of Thailand less room to cut rates. For an SME, this means planning for softer export orders and keeping borrowing costs and cash buffers under review rather than assuming cheap credit.