AMCHAM's Thai-US summit (17 Aug 2026) reported US imports from Thailand up 72% in H1 2026, driven by supply-chain shifts. The average effective US tariff on Thai goods is put at roughly 8-10% under the 19% headline rate, and about 5.5% after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs. Forced-labour tariff rose from 10% to 12.5%. The main risk is a possible Section 301 action that could push tariffs back toward 19% or higher; timing and form are unknown. Exporters should plan for tariff volatility, keep a cost buffer, and check whether their product or supply chain falls under transshipment scrutiny.