The Thai Retail Association forecasts retail market growth of 3% to about 4.38 trillion baht in 2026, and 3-3.5% in 2027. Sales in Q3-Q4 are expected to stay flat year on year, with customers buying fewer items per receipt. Non-essentials like clothing, furniture and home decor are weakest. The association is proposing measures: VAT refund, Easy E-Receipt, a Kon Larn Krueng Plus style scheme, tighter checks on cheap imports, platform tax responsibility, and hourly employment rules. These are proposals only, not yet policy. Plan Q4 stock and staffing cautiously, and watch for the Thai-Chuay-Thai Plus follow-on after its September end.