US farmers are expanding jasmine rice, reportedly to 50,000 acres across six states, but the Thai Rice Exporters Association says it is too early to judge the impact on Thai Hom Mali exports. Thailand shipped 640,000 tonnes to the US in 2025, its largest market. Watch three things: quality versus Thai aroma, price against Thai Hom Mali at about US$1,200 per tonne, and consumer acceptance. The acreage figures are unverified. For now, no change is needed, but rice exporters should track US supply reports.