An exporters' association head says El Niño could cut rice yields in major producing countries and lift Thai export prices, and that Thailand could reach its 7 million tonne export goal this year. But the first half of 2026 saw exports fall 18.2% to 3.28 million tonnes and value down 20.5%. Middle East shipments (Iraq down to about 90,000 tonnes) are hurt by the conflict and higher Turkey routing costs. Treat the price upside as an outlook, not a fact. Watch Malaysia, the Philippines and South Africa, which are growing, and plan for weaker China and US volumes.