The UTCC forecasting centre raised its 2026 Thai GDP growth forecast from 2% to 2.5%, driven by exports and AI-related electronics demand. Its key point for small firms is that growth is K-shaped: high-tech and large companies gain while SMEs, households and traditional sectors (automotive, petroleum, construction materials) are expected to keep contracting. Plan for weak domestic demand and cautious bank lending, with farm costs (fertiliser) and lower-than-usual rainfall from El Niño as added pressure. The forecast assumes Middle East conflicts resolve by October and no US Section 301 trade conclusion this year.