Japan's real GDP grew 1.1% annualised in Q2 2026, below the 2% forecast, as business investment fell and consumer spending stayed flat under Middle East tensions and high living costs. Markets still put about 80% odds on a BOJ rate hike at the 18 September meeting. The yen sits near 159 per dollar, weaker than its 10-year average of 126. For a Thai SME this is background: a stronger yen is not expected soon, and Japanese tourist and import demand may soften. Watch for Japanese-linked costs or export orders, but no action is needed yet.